Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31? — final odds

Resolved NO · July 31, 2026Final price 0¢ YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?" resolved NO on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $229K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-10¢ over the window

-10¢

24h change

$214K

24h volume

$229K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$32,310 traded — 411.7× the average
3h ago
Whale trade
$32,310 BUY — moved the price 99.8¢
3h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 13.6× the average
3h ago
Volume spike
$2,000 traded — 27.2× the average
3h ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 36¢ (+35.4¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 13.6× the average
4h ago
conviction signal
4h ago
Volume spike
$333 traded — 4.6× the average
4h ago
Volume spike
$1,867 traded — 25.8× the average
4h ago
Volume spike
$400 traded — 5.5× the average
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on July 31, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.