Bitcoin Up or Down on November 12? — final odds

Resolved NO · November 12, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on November 12?" resolved NO on November 12, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $90K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 100¢

recent price

—

24h change

$89K

24h volume

$90K

total volume

Nov 12, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±41.7¢ swing band
8h ago
High volatility
±47.9¢ swing band
8h ago
High volatility
±52.1¢ swing band
8h ago
Odds swing
86¢ → 2¢ (-84.1¢ in 15 min)
8h ago
High volatility
±77¢ swing band
8h ago
High volatility
±5.6¢ swing band
9h ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 0¢ (-98.7¢ in 15 min)
9h ago
High volatility
±42.1¢ swing band
9h ago
High volatility
±58.7¢ swing band
9h ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 1¢ (-97.6¢ in 15 min)
9h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on November 12?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on November 12, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.