Bitcoin Up or Down on November 4? — final odds

This market has ended · November 4, 2026Final price 7¢ YES — the market gave this a 7% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on November 4?" resolved on November 4, 2026 at a final price of 7¢ YES — a 7% implied probability — after $135K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 7¢NO 93¢

recent price

—

24h change

$135K

24h volume

$135K

total volume

Nov 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±51¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±38.6¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 29¢ (-69.4¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±37.5¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 100¢ (+99.4¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±26.5¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
96¢ → 5¢ (-91.1¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±40.3¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±16.2¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±35.2¢ swing band
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on November 4?" resolve?

This market ended on November 4, 2026 with a final traded price of 7¢ YES (7% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 7¢ — an implied probability of 7%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.