Bitcoin Up or Down on October 14? — final odds

Resolved NO · October 14, 2026Final price 2¢ YES — the market gave this a 2% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 14?" resolved NO on October 14, 2026 at a final price of 2¢ YES — a 2% implied probability — after $77K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

—

24h change

$77K

24h volume

$77K

total volume

Oct 14, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±45.3¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 97¢ (+97¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
Volume spike
$233 traded — 8.8× the average
1d ago
High volatility
±19.5¢ swing band
1d ago
High volatility
±31.2¢ swing band
1d ago
High volatility
±14.2¢ swing band
1d ago
High volatility
±20.7¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
91¢ → 1¢ (-89.9¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±5.7¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
15¢ → 25¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
1d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 14?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on October 14, 2026. Its final traded price was 2¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 2¢ — an implied probability of 2%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.