Bitcoin Up or Down on October 17? — final odds

Resolved YES · October 17, 2026Final price 98¢ YES — the market gave this a 98% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 17?" resolved YES on October 17, 2026 at a final price of 98¢ YES — a 98% implied probability — after $234K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

98%

implied probability

YES 98¢NO 2¢

recent price

—

24h change

$223K

24h volume

$234K

total volume

Oct 17, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±41.8¢ swing band
3h ago
Volume spike
$4,400 traded — 80.8× the average
4h ago
High volatility
±41.1¢ swing band
4h ago
High volatility
±16.3¢ swing band
4h ago
Volume spike
$260 traded — 5.6× the average
4h ago
Volume spike
$400 traded — 8.7× the average
4h ago
conviction signal
5h ago
Volume spike
$139 traded — 3× the average
5h ago
High volatility
±8.3¢ swing band
5h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 17?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on October 17, 2026. Its final traded price was 98¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 98¢ — an implied probability of 98%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.