Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19? — final odds

This market has ended · October 19, 2026Final price 50¢ YES — the market gave this a 50% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?" resolved on October 19, 2026 at a final price of 50¢ YES — a 50% implied probability — after $189K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 50¢

recent price

—

24h change

$190K

24h volume

$189K

total volume

Oct 19, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±28.7¢ swing band
2h ago
Volume spike
$826 traded — 11.3× the average
2h ago
High volatility
±40.5¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 60¢ (-39.8¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 99¢ (+33.5¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
Volume spike
$344 traded — 4.9× the average
3h ago
Volume spike
$300 traded — 4.1× the average
3h ago
High volatility
±19.5¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
97¢ → 52¢ (-45.2¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
Volume spike
$229 traded — 3.2× the average
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?" resolve?

This market ended on October 19, 2026 with a final traded price of 50¢ YES (50% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 50¢ — an implied probability of 50%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.