Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28? — final odds

Resolved NO · October 28, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?" resolved NO on October 28, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $126K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 100¢

recent price

—

24h change

$134K

24h volume

$126K

total volume

Oct 28, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Spread blowout
spread 1¢ vs 0.0169¢ normal
50m ago
High volatility
±27.1¢ swing band
50m ago
Volume spike
$10,000 traded — 264.3× the average
58m ago
High volatility
±10.5¢ swing band
1h ago
Volume spike
$147 traded — 3.9× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±7.8¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 73¢ (+9¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±12.2¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
37¢ → 69¢ (+32¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
conviction signal
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on October 28, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.