Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? — final odds

This market has ended · October 5, 2026Final price — YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?" resolved on October 5, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $2.0M in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES —NO —

recent price

—

24h change

$251K

24h volume

$2.0M

total volume

Oct 5, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

conviction signal
8d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.062¢ vs 0.0193¢ normal
8d ago
High volatility
±4.5¢ swing band
8d ago
Odds swing
97¢ → 61¢ (-35.6¢ in 15 min)
8d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.064¢ vs 0.0149¢ normal
8d ago
High volatility
±11.9¢ swing band
8d ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 77¢ (+12.9¢ in 15 min)
8d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.047¢ vs 0.014¢ normal
8d ago
High volatility
±20.8¢ swing band
8d ago
Odds swing
91¢ → 81¢ (-9.9¢ in 15 min)
8d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?" resolve?

This market ended on October 5, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.