Bitcoin Up or Down on September 1? — final odds

Resolved NO · September 1, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on September 1?" resolved NO on September 1, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $220K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

—

24h change

$225K

24h volume

$220K

total volume

Sep 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$522 traded — 7.4× the average
10h ago
High volatility
±41.8¢ swing band
10h ago
Volume spike
$935 traded — 13.3× the average
10h ago
High volatility
±6.5¢ swing band
10h ago
Odds swing
27¢ → 0¢ (-26.8¢ in 15 min)
10h ago
High volatility
±40.5¢ swing band
10h ago
Volume spike
$814 traded — 12.3× the average
11h ago
High volatility
±4.3¢ swing band
11h ago
High volatility
±5.3¢ swing band
11h ago
Volume spike
$1,013 traded — 15.3× the average
11h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on September 1?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on September 1, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.