Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET — final odds

This market has ended · July 28, 2026Final price 50¢ YES — the market gave this a 50% implied probability.

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50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 50¢

recent price

-50¢ over the window

-50¢

24h change

$19K

24h volume

$19K

total volume

Jul 28, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Spread blowout
spread 1¢ vs 0.0381¢ normal
21h ago
High volatility
±5.4¢ swing band
21h ago
High volatility
±7.5¢ swing band
21h ago
High volatility
±19.7¢ swing band
22h ago
Odds swing
68¢ → 46¢ (-22¢ in 15 min)
22h ago
High volatility
±26¢ swing band
23h ago
conviction signal
23h ago
High volatility
±4.1¢ swing band
23h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET" resolve?

This market ended on July 28, 2026 with a final traded price of 50¢ YES (50% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 50¢ — an implied probability of 50%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.