Ethereum Up or Down on August 2? — live odds

"Ethereum Up or Down on August 2?" is trading at a 7% implied probability, with YES at 7¢ and NO at 93¢. $56K has changed hands so far, $56K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 2, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

implied probability

YES 7¢NO 93¢

recent price

-41¢ over the window

-41¢

24h change

$56K

24h volume

$56K

total volume

Aug 2, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$260 traded — 7× the average
5m ago
High volatility
±25.4¢ swing band
11m ago
Volume spike
$125 traded — 3.3× the average
25m ago
High volatility
±29.3¢ swing band
41m ago
Odds swing
40¢ → 11¢ (-29¢ in 15 min)
41m ago
High volatility
±30.3¢ swing band
56m ago
Odds swing
49¢ → 8¢ (-41¢ in 15 min)
56m ago
conviction signal
1h ago
High volatility
±5.3¢ swing band
1h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 30.7× the average
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.