
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? — live odds
73%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$57
24h volume
$1.0M
total volume
Dec 31, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 19d ago
High volatility
±4.4¢ swing band
- 19d ago
Odds swing
72¢ → 99¢ (+27¢ in 15 min)
- 19d ago
High volatility
±12.8¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?"?
The market currently prices YES at 73¢ and NO at 27¢, an implied probability of 73% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.0M has been traded in total, $57 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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