
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M? — final odds
"Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?" resolved YES on November 3, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $270K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
100%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$147K
24h volume
$270K
total volume
Nov 3, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 4d ago
High volatility
±33.2¢ swing band
- 4d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 100¢ (+49.9¢ in 15 min)
- 4d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 99¢ (+49.4¢ in 15 min)
- 4d ago
conviction signal
- 4d ago
High volatility
±21¢ swing band
- 4d ago
High volatility
±36.4¢ swing band
- 4d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 99¢ (+49.3¢ in 15 min)
- 4d ago
High volatility
±21.2¢ swing band
- 4d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 99¢ (+49.4¢ in 15 min)
- 4d ago
Volume spike
$4,000 traded — 43.9× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1. If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Quick answers
How did "Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?" resolve?
This market resolved YES on November 3, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$270K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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