
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3? — final odds
"S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?" resolved YES on August 3, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $595K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
100%
implied probability
recent price
-4¢ over the window
-4¢
24h change
$593K
24h volume
$595K
total volume
Aug 3, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 4h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 4.2× the average
- 4h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 4.3× the average
- 4h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 4.3× the average
- 4h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 4.3× the average
- 4h ago
Odds swing
7¢ → 100¢ (+92.6¢ in 15 min)
- 4h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 4.3× the average
- 4h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 4.3× the average
- 4h ago
conviction signal
- 4h ago
High volatility
±27.3¢ swing band
- 5h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 4.3× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on August 3 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on August 3 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Quick answers
How did "S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?" resolve?
This market resolved YES on August 3, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$595K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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