
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11? — live odds
"S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11?" is trading at a 100% implied probability, with YES at 100¢ and NO at 0¢. $147K has changed hands so far, $147K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 11, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.
100%
implied probability
recent price
+3¢ over the window
+3¢
24h change
$147K
24h volume
$147K
total volume
Sep 11, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, September 11, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, September 11, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11?"?
The market currently prices YES at 100¢ and NO at 0¢, an implied probability of 100% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by September 11, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
How much has been traded on this market?
$147K has been traded in total, $147K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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