
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? — live odds
"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" is trading at a 86% implied probability, with YES at 86¢ and NO at 15¢. $14.4M has changed hands so far, $689K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 29, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.
86%
implied probability
recent price
+18¢ over the window
+18¢
24h change
$689K
24h volume
$14.4M
total volume
Oct 29, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 85d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.968 · edge: 0.022
- 109d ago
High volatility
±27.6¢ swing band
- 109d ago
Odds swing
65¢ → 26¢ (-39¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?"?
The market currently prices YES at 86¢ and NO at 15¢, an implied probability of 86% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 29, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
How much has been traded on this market?
$14.4M has been traded in total, $689K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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