Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? live odds

"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" is trading at a 68% implied probability, with YES at 68¢ and NO at 32¢. $214K has changed hands so far, $17K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 28, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

68%

implied probability

YES 68¢NO 32¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$17K

24h volume

$214K

total volume

Oct 28, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.968 · edge: 0.022

    40d ago
  • High volatility

    ±27.6¢ swing band

    64d ago
  • Odds swing

    65¢ → 26¢ (-39¢ in 15 min)

    64d ago
How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?"?

The market currently prices YES at 68¢ and NO at 32¢, an implied probability of 68% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by October 28, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$214K has been traded in total, $17K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app

Related Finance markets