
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July? — final odds
"Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?" resolved NO on August 12, 2026 at a final price of 3¢ YES — a 3% implied probability — after $42K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
3%
implied probability
recent price
-2¢ over the window
-2¢
24h change
$7K
24h volume
$42K
total volume
Aug 12, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Quick answers
How did "Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?" resolve?
This market resolved NO on August 12, 2026. Its final traded price was 3¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 3¢ — an implied probability of 3%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$42K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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