Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? live odds

72%

implied probability

YES 72¢NO 29¢

recent price

-3¢ over the window

-3¢

24h change

$324

24h volume

$146K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±40.4¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    32¢ → 93¢ (+61¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±7.4¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    90¢ → 68¢ (-22¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±10.3¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±16.9¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • conviction signal

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±29.3¢ swing band

    2d ago
  • Odds swing

    98¢ → 46¢ (-52¢ in 15 min)

    2d ago
  • High volatility

    ±32.1¢ swing band

    2d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 72¢ and NO at 29¢, an implied probability of 72% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$146K has been traded in total, $324 of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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