Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? live odds

27%

implied probability

YES 27¢NO 74¢

recent price

+3¢ over the window

+3¢

24h change

$47

24h volume

$66K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.958 · edge: 0.032

    4d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021

    8d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02

    14d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024

    18d ago
  • High volatility

    ±30.1¢ swing band

    25d ago
  • High volatility

    ±5.9¢ swing band

    26d ago
  • Odds swing

    26¢ → 79¢ (+53¢ in 15 min)

    26d ago
  • High volatility

    ±8.4¢ swing band

    26d ago
  • Odds swing

    2¢ → 23¢ (+21¢ in 15 min)

    26d ago
  • Odds swing

    16¢ → 26¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)

    30d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 27¢ and NO at 74¢, an implied probability of 27% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$66K has been traded in total, $47 of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app

Related Culture markets