
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? — live odds
"Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?" is trading at a 45% implied probability, with YES at 45¢ and NO at 55¢. $182K has changed hands so far, $222 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.
45%
implied probability
recent price
-6¢ over the window
-6¢
24h change
$222
24h volume
$182K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 7d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.965 · edge: 0.025
- 7d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.965 · edge: 0.025
- 7d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.965 · edge: 0.025
- 7d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.965 · edge: 0.025
- 7d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.965 · edge: 0.025
- 7d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.965 · edge: 0.025
- 7d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.965 · edge: 0.025
- 7d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.964 · edge: 0.026
- 9d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.964 · edge: 0.026
- 12d ago
High volatility
±4.4¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 45¢ and NO at 55¢, an implied probability of 45% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$182K has been traded in total, $222 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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