Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? — live odds

Part of Highest grossing movie in 2026?· see all 14 outcomes →📲 Open in app

77%

implied probability

YES 77¢NO 23¢

recent price

+2¢ over the window

+2¢

24h change

$8K

24h volume

$525K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±11.2¢ swing band
4m ago
Odds swing
77¢ → 100¢ (+22.6¢ in 15 min)
4m ago
High volatility
±4.3¢ swing band
19m ago
Odds swing
78¢ → 88¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
19m ago
High volatility
±8.4¢ swing band
34m ago
Odds swing
40¢ → 80¢ (+40¢ in 15 min)
34m ago
High volatility
±10.4¢ swing band
49m ago
Odds swing
17¢ → 78¢ (+61.4¢ in 15 min)
49m ago
High volatility
±12.8¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
6¢ → 50¢ (+44.3¢ in 15 min)
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.