Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July? — live odds

Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in July?· see all 20 outcomes →📲 Open in app

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$12K

24h volume

$135K

total volume

Aug 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
4m ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 1¢ (-98.8¢ in 15 min)
4m ago
High volatility
±50.8¢ swing band
19m ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 1¢ (-98.8¢ in 15 min)
19m ago
High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
35m ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 1¢ (-98.8¢ in 15 min)
35m ago
High volatility
±42.1¢ swing band
53m ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 1¢ (-98.8¢ in 15 min)
53m ago
High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 1¢ (-98.8¢ in 15 min)
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.