Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? — live odds

Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?· see all 32 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 81% implied probability, with YES at 81¢ and NO at 19¢. $98K has changed hands so far, $22K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

81%

implied probability

YES 81¢NO 19¢

recent price

+28¢ over the window

+28¢

24h change

$22K

24h volume

$98K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±31.2¢ swing band
14m ago
Odds swing
48¢ → 2¢ (-46¢ in 15 min)
14m ago
High volatility
±27.7¢ swing band
30m ago
High volatility
±13.5¢ swing band
45m ago
Odds swing
48¢ → 95¢ (+47¢ in 15 min)
45m ago
High volatility
±13.5¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±10.5¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
82¢ → 47¢ (-35¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±16.4¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
47¢ → 74¢ (+27¢ in 15 min)
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.