Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18? — live odds
"Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $140K has changed hands so far, $103K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 19, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.
3%
implied probability
recent price
+11¢ over the window
+11¢
24h change
$103K
24h volume
$140K
total volume
Oct 19, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 1m ago
High volatility
±4.2¢ swing band
- 1m ago
Odds swing
59¢ → 11¢ (-47.8¢ in 15 min)
- 16m ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 3¢ (-8.6¢ in 15 min)
- 31m ago
High volatility
±4.2¢ swing band
- 46m ago
High volatility
±4.9¢ swing band
- 50m ago
Volume spike
$125 traded — 3.2× the average
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$214 traded — 5.7× the average
- 2h ago
conviction signal
- 2h ago
Volume spike
$214 traded — 5.7× the average
- 2h ago
Volume spike
$200 traded — 5.4× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the date range specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18?"?
The market currently prices YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢, an implied probability of 3% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 19, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.
How much has been traded on this market?
$140K has been traded in total, $103K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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