Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? — live odds

Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?· see all 32 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 11% implied probability, with YES at 11¢ and NO at 89¢. $1.7M has changed hands so far, $4K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

11%

implied probability

YES 11¢NO 89¢

recent price

-10¢ over the window

-10¢

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$1.7M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±4.1¢ swing band
10m ago
High volatility
±5.3¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
17¢ → 3¢ (-14¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±13.7¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 13¢ (+9¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 17¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 3¢ (-9¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±22.7¢ swing band
4h ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 84¢ (+80¢ in 15 min)
4h ago
Odds swing
73¢ → 4¢ (-69¢ in 15 min)
5h ago

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.