Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? — live odds

Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in October?· see all 19 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?" is trading at a 68% implied probability, with YES at 68¢ and NO at 33¢. $47K has changed hands so far, $32K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

68%

implied probability

YES 68¢NO 33¢

recent price

+20¢ over the window

+20¢

24h change

$32K

24h volume

$47K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±34.5¢ swing band
10m ago
High volatility
±9¢ swing band
25m ago
High volatility
±28.1¢ swing band
41m ago
High volatility
±22.6¢ swing band
56m ago
High volatility
±23.8¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±25.1¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
60¢ → 86¢ (+26¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
Volume spike
$65 traded — 3.8× the average
2h ago
High volatility
±6.4¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 61¢ (-37¢ in 15 min)
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.