Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — live odds

"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" is trading at a 4% implied probability, with YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢. $40.6M has changed hands so far, $21K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 4¢NO 96¢

recent price

-4¢ over the window

-4¢

24h change

$21K

24h volume

$40.6M

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±24.1¢ swing band
7m ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 3¢ (-67.4¢ in 15 min)
7m ago
High volatility
±24.5¢ swing band
23m ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 1¢ (-68.7¢ in 15 min)
23m ago
High volatility
±20.1¢ swing band
38m ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 3¢ (-32.4¢ in 15 min)
38m ago
High volatility
±10¢ swing band
54m ago
High volatility
±40.6¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
5¢ → 70¢ (+65.3¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±19.6¢ swing band
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.