Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — live odds

"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $44.3M has changed hands so far, $43K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

+51¢ over the window

+51¢

24h change

$43K

24h volume

$44.3M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±17.7¢ swing band
10m ago
Odds swing
19¢ → 3¢ (-16.2¢ in 15 min)
10m ago
High volatility
±28¢ swing band
26m ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 42¢ (+40¢ in 15 min)
26m ago
High volatility
±26.4¢ swing band
41m ago
High volatility
±39.8¢ swing band
56m ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 19¢ (+17¢ in 15 min)
56m ago
High volatility
±13¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±37.4¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±24.8¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.