Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — live odds
4%
implied probability
recent price
+1¢ over the window
+1¢
24h change
$83K
24h volume
$38.9M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 7452× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 7452× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 7452× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 7452× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 7452× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 7452× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 7452× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 7451.3× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 37.4× the average
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 37.4× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 4% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$38.9M has been traded in total, $83K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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