Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? — live odds

Part of Largest Company end of September?· see all 8 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?" is trading at a 69% implied probability, with YES at 69¢ and NO at 31¢. $7K has changed hands so far, $2K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

69%

implied probability

YES 69¢NO 31¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$7K

total volume

Sep 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±13.8¢ swing band
1m ago
Odds swing
76¢ → 65¢ (-11¢ in 15 min)
1m ago
High volatility
±41.8¢ swing band
16m ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.06¢ vs 0.0115¢ normal
18m ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.04¢ vs 0.01¢ normal
28m ago
High volatility
±8.8¢ swing band
31m ago
Odds swing
55¢ → 43¢ (-12¢ in 15 min)
31m ago
Volume spike
$10 traded — 5× the average
34m ago
High volatility
±7.1¢ swing band
47m ago
Odds swing
72¢ → 48¢ (-24¢ in 15 min)
47m ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.