Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? — live odds

Part of Largest Company end of September?· see all 9 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?" is trading at a 92% implied probability, with YES at 92¢ and NO at 9¢. $495K has changed hands so far, $30K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

92%

implied probability

YES 92¢NO 9¢

recent price

+2¢ over the window

+2¢

24h change

$30K

24h volume

$495K

total volume

Sep 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$355 traded — 15.8× the average
52m ago
High volatility
±19.7¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
93¢ → 20¢ (-73.2¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Odds swing
20¢ → 92¢ (+72.2¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±27.3¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
20¢ → 0¢ (-19.8¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Volume spike
$217 traded — 11.7× the average
3h ago
Volume spike
$4,992 traded — 269.5× the average
3h ago
High volatility
±35.4¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±32.6¢ swing band
3h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.