Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
"Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" is trading at a 74% implied probability, with YES at 74¢ and NO at 27¢. $1.4M has changed hands so far, $9K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
74%
implied probability
recent price
-4¢ over the window
-4¢
24h change
$9K
24h volume
$1.4M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 10m ago
Odds swing
17¢ → 1¢ (-16¢ in 15 min)
- 18m ago
High volatility
±31.6¢ swing band
- 26m ago
Odds swing
74¢ → 1¢ (-73¢ in 15 min)
- 33m ago
High volatility
±23.6¢ swing band
- 43m ago
Volume spike
$52 traded — 16× the average
- 49m ago
High volatility
±21.4¢ swing band
- 57m ago
Odds swing
75¢ → 51¢ (-24¢ in 15 min)
- 1h ago
High volatility
±10.7¢ swing band
- 1h ago
High volatility
±15.5¢ swing band
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$1,500 traded — 461.6× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 74¢ and NO at 27¢, an implied probability of 74% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.4M has been traded in total, $9K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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