Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds

Part of Largest Company end of December 2026?· see all 8 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" is trading at a 80% implied probability, with YES at 80¢ and NO at 20¢. $1.1M has changed hands so far, $10K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

80%

implied probability

YES 80¢NO 20¢

recent price

+4¢ over the window

+4¢

24h change

$10K

24h volume

$1.1M

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

complete set arb
sum: 0.945 · edge: 0.045
16d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.945 · edge: 0.045
16d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.952 · edge: 0.038
49d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.964 · edge: 0.026
63d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.954 · edge: 0.036
63d ago
High volatility
±13.3¢ swing band
72d ago
High volatility
±4.4¢ swing band
72d ago
High volatility
±5.1¢ swing band
72d ago
High volatility
±8.1¢ swing band
81d ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 76¢ (+12¢ in 15 min)
81d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.