Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
62%
implied probability
recent price
+12¢ over the window
+12¢
24h change
$1K
24h volume
$848K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 4d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.952 · edge: 0.038
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.964 · edge: 0.026
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.954 · edge: 0.036
- 27d ago
High volatility
±13.3¢ swing band
- 27d ago
High volatility
±4.4¢ swing band
- 27d ago
High volatility
±5.1¢ swing band
- 36d ago
High volatility
±8.1¢ swing band
- 36d ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 76¢ (+12¢ in 15 min)
- 36d ago
High volatility
±7.3¢ swing band
- 36d ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 75¢ (+11¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 62¢ and NO at 39¢, an implied probability of 62% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$848K has been traded in total, $1K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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