Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
22%
implied probability
recent price
-11¢ over the window
-11¢
24h change
$1K
24h volume
$540K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.954 · edge: 0.036
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.954 · edge: 0.036
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.964 · edge: 0.026
- 19d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.968 · edge: 0.022
- 22d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.953 · edge: 0.037
- 22d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.923 · edge: 0.067
- 22d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.922 · edge: 0.068
- 31d ago
High volatility
±49¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 22¢ and NO at 78¢, an implied probability of 22% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$540K has been traded in total, $1K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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