Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
"Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" is trading at a 13% implied probability, with YES at 13¢ and NO at 87¢. $883K has changed hands so far, $10K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
13%
implied probability
recent price
+1¢ over the window
+1¢
24h change
$10K
24h volume
$883K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 35d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
- 45d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
- 63d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 63d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 63d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.954 · edge: 0.036
- 63d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.954 · edge: 0.036
- 63d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.964 · edge: 0.026
- 64d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.968 · edge: 0.022
- 67d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.953 · edge: 0.037
- 67d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.923 · edge: 0.067
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 13¢ and NO at 87¢, an implied probability of 13% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$883K has been traded in total, $10K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
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