
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? — final odds
"Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?" resolved YES on August 2, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $224K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
100%
implied probability
recent price
+40¢ over the window
+40¢
24h change
$9K
24h volume
$224K
total volume
Aug 2, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 21d ago
complete set arb
sum: 1.032 · edge: 0.022
- 21d ago
complete set arb
sum: 1.032 · edge: 0.022
- 21d ago
complete set arb
sum: 1.034 · edge: 0.024
- 34d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 29¢ (+24.7¢ in 15 min)
- 34d ago
High volatility
±5.9¢ swing band
- 34d ago
Odds swing
60¢ → 5¢ (-54.8¢ in 15 min)
- 34d ago
High volatility
±8.3¢ swing band
- 34d ago
Odds swing
59¢ → 22¢ (-37.5¢ in 15 min)
- 34d ago
High volatility
±20.5¢ swing band
- 35d ago
High volatility
±15.8¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Quick answers
How did "Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?" resolve?
This market resolved YES on August 2, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$224K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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