Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m? final odds

Resolved NO · August 2, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?" resolved NO on August 2, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $43K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES NO 100¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

24h change

$291

24h volume

$43K

total volume

Aug 2, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • complete set arb

    sum: 1.032 · edge: 0.022

    10d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 1.03 · edge: 0.02

    20d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 1.03 · edge: 0.02

    20d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 1.03 · edge: 0.02

    20d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 1.032 · edge: 0.022

    21d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 1.032 · edge: 0.022

    21d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 1.032 · edge: 0.022

    21d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 1.032 · edge: 0.022

    21d ago
  • Odds swing

    33¢ → 6¢ (-27.5¢ in 15 min)

    22d ago
  • Odds swing

    9¢ → 20¢ (+11.6¢ in 15 min)

    22d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Quick answers

How did "Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 2, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$43K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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