Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July? final odds

Resolved NO · August 1, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?" resolved NO on August 1, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $65K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES NO 100¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$13K

24h volume

$65K

total volume

Aug 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during July 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Quick answers

How did "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 1, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$65K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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