Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? — live odds

"Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 4% implied probability, with YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢. $936K has changed hands so far, $5 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

implied probability

YES 4¢NO 96¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

24h volume

$936K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±21¢ swing band
37d ago
High volatility
±18.1¢ swing band
37d ago
conviction signal
44d ago
High volatility
±14.6¢ swing band
44d ago
High volatility
±77.8¢ swing band
46d ago
High volatility
±65.6¢ swing band
46d ago
High volatility
±78.4¢ swing band
46d ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 0¢ (-11.6¢ in 15 min)
46d ago
High volatility
±54.7¢ swing band
68d ago
High volatility
±32.8¢ swing band
68d ago

How this market resolves

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.