Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? — live odds

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11%

implied probability

YES 11¢NO 89¢

recent price

-88¢ over the window

-88¢

24h change

$46

24h volume

$851K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±77.8¢ swing band
1d ago
High volatility
±65.6¢ swing band
1d ago
High volatility
±78.4¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 0¢ (-11.6¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±54.7¢ swing band
23d ago
High volatility
±32.8¢ swing band
23d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 66¢ (+65.2¢ in 15 min)
23d ago
High volatility
±65.4¢ swing band
23d ago
Odds swing
78¢ → 1¢ (-76.7¢ in 15 min)
23d ago
High volatility
±24.3¢ swing band
23d ago

How this market resolves

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.