Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? final odds

Resolved NO · July 29, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

0%

implied probability

YES NO 100¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$1K

24h volume

$84K

total volume

Jul 29, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±9.9¢ swing band

    26d ago
  • High volatility

    ±5.9¢ swing band

    26d ago
  • High volatility

    ±18.8¢ swing band

    26d ago
  • High volatility

    ±31.6¢ swing band

    39d ago
  • Odds swing

    99¢ → 90¢ (-9.4¢ in 15 min)

    39d ago
  • High volatility

    ±45.7¢ swing band

    39d ago
  • High volatility

    ±32.1¢ swing band

    39d ago
  • Odds swing

    89¢ → 21¢ (-68¢ in 15 min)

    39d ago
  • High volatility

    ±28.1¢ swing band

    39d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.951 · edge: 0.039

    41d ago
How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Quick answers

How did "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on July 29, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$84K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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