Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? final odds

Resolved NO · September 16, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?" resolved NO on September 16, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $104K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES NO 100¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

24h change

$1K

24h volume

$104K

total volume

Sep 16, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Quick answers

How did "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on September 16, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$104K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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