Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — live odds
"Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?" is trading at a 20% implied probability, with YES at 20¢ and NO at 81¢. $56K has changed hands so far, $287 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
20%
implied probability
recent price
-16¢ over the window
-16¢
24h change
$287
24h volume
$56K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 45d ago
High volatility
±6.3¢ swing band
- 45d ago
High volatility
±18.5¢ swing band
- 45d ago
Odds swing
77¢ → 15¢ (-62¢ in 15 min)
- 45d ago
High volatility
±28.2¢ swing band
- 45d ago
Odds swing
14¢ → 74¢ (+60¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?"?
The market currently prices YES at 20¢ and NO at 81¢, an implied probability of 20% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://agi.safe.ai/.
How much has been traded on this market?
$56K has been traded in total, $287 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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