Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — live odds
"Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?" is trading at a 8% implied probability, with YES at 8¢ and NO at 92¢. $24K has changed hands so far, $470 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
8%
implied probability
recent price
+4¢ over the window
+4¢
24h change
$470
24h volume
$24K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 11m ago
Odds swing
28¢ → 6¢ (-22¢ in 15 min)
- 27m ago
High volatility
±11¢ swing band
- 27m ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 27¢ (+17¢ in 15 min)
- 43m ago
High volatility
±8.7¢ swing band
- 43m ago
Odds swing
84¢ → 10¢ (-74¢ in 15 min)
- 1h ago
High volatility
±13.2¢ swing band
- 2h ago
High volatility
±16.5¢ swing band
- 2h ago
High volatility
±13.1¢ swing band
- 2h ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 42¢ (+41¢ in 15 min)
- 2h ago
High volatility
±5.2¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?"?
The market currently prices YES at 8¢ and NO at 92¢, an implied probability of 8% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://agi.safe.ai/.
How much has been traded on this market?
$24K has been traded in total, $470 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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