Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 18? — final odds

Resolved NO · October 18, 2026Final price 2¢ YES — the market gave this a 2% implied probability.

"Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 18?" resolved NO on October 18, 2026 at a final price of 2¢ YES — a 2% implied probability — after $39K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

—

24h change

$23K

24h volume

$39K

total volume

Oct 18, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±42.2¢ swing band
4h ago
High volatility
±16¢ swing band
4h ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 84¢ (+83¢ in 15 min)
4h ago
Volume spike
$155 traded — 15× the average
5h ago
High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
5h ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 1¢ (-97.1¢ in 15 min)
5h ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.025¢ vs 0.0073¢ normal
5h ago
High volatility
±25.6¢ swing band
5h ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.023¢ vs 0.0058¢ normal
5h ago
High volatility
±18.5¢ swing band
5h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 18?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on October 18, 2026. Its final traded price was 2¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 2¢ — an implied probability of 2%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.