
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30? — final odds
"Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?" resolved on October 1, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $264K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$5K
24h volume
$264K
total volume
Oct 1, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 12d ago
High volatility
±22¢ swing band
- 12d ago
Odds swing
22¢ → 99¢ (+76.6¢ in 15 min)
- 12d ago
High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
- 12d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 2¢ (-97.5¢ in 15 min)
- 12d ago
High volatility
±21.9¢ swing band
- 12d ago
High volatility
±6.5¢ swing band
- 12d ago
High volatility
±5.4¢ swing band
- 12d ago
Odds swing
22¢ → 5¢ (-16.9¢ in 15 min)
- 12d ago
High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
- 12d ago
Odds swing
22¢ → 5¢ (-16.9¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Quick answers
How did "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?" resolve?
This market ended on October 1, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$264K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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