Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? — final odds

Resolved YES · November 1, 2026Final price 99¢ YES — the market gave this a 99% implied probability.

"Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?" resolved YES on November 1, 2026 at a final price of 99¢ YES — a 99% implied probability — after $178K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

99%

implied probability

YES 99¢NO 1¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$270

24h volume

$178K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±19.9¢ swing band

    26d ago
  • Odds swing

    79¢ → 37¢ (-42¢ in 15 min)

    26d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

How did "Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on November 1, 2026. Its final traded price was 99¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 99¢ — an implied probability of 99%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$178K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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