Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in August? live odds

"Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in August?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at — and NO at —. $11K has changed hands so far, $7K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

0%

implied probability

YES NO

recent price

24h change

$7K

24h volume

$11K

total volume

Sep 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in August?"?

The market currently prices YES at — and NO at —, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by September 1, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD.

How much has been traded on this market?

$11K has been traded in total, $7K of it in the last 24 hours.

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