TL;DR
- 🐋 $65.7K whale BUY hits Phillies market — price impact -99.8¢
- Israel-Iran ceasefire odds jump 50¢ to 80¢
- Bitcoin $60K dip odds rise 49¢ to 52¢
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | ▲ +50¢ | 80¢ (80%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | ▲ +49¢ | 52¢ (52%) |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | ▲ +47¢ | 87¢ (87%) |
| National Bank Open: Emerson Jones vs Lanlana Tararudee | ▲ +45¢ | 50¢ (50%) |
The most significant movement today centered on the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? market, which saw a +50¢ jump, repricing to 80¢ (an 80% implied probability) that the ceasefire will hold. This follows closely behind a similar market for August 9, which also gained +47¢.
🐋 Whale watch
A $65,701 BUY order impacted the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles market, pushing the price down by -99.8¢. This significant trade illustrates the immediate impact large positions can have, as detailed in our whale watching guide. Elsewhere, two large BUYs totaling over $99K hit the Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? market, with price impacts of -94.7¢ and +94.2¢, suggesting a mixed reaction to the large volume. Understanding how to read Polymarket signals, including these larger trades, is key to navigating the day's events. Read more in our guide on how to read Polymarket.
📊 Volume spikes
Several markets saw unusual trading volume today. The market asking Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 4? experienced volume 36.5 times its average, with $99.0 traded. The US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? market saw 13.1 times its average volume, trading $634.21, as participants weigh geopolitical developments. Similarly, the Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? market spiked to 10.4 times its average, with $5,000 traded. For more insights into crypto prediction markets, visit our dedicated category page.
🗓️ Resolving soon
A number of notable markets are set to resolve today, August 4. The market for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? will conclude, with significant implications. Esports fans are watching the LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier market. The long-running market asking Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? is also closing, with activity viewable on the Elon Musk tweet count tracker. Additionally, markets on whether Bitcoin will be above $62,000 on August 4? reach their resolution.
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