TL;DR
- 🐋 $467K whale sell hits US-Iran invasion market — price follows 57¢.
- Bitcoin $72.5k odds drop 50¢ to 9¢ on the day.
- Broadcom market sees 72x volume spike.
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? | ▼ -50¢ | 9¢ (9%) | N/A |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | ▲ +50¢ | 65¢ (65%) | N/A |
| Solana Up or Down on August 2? | ▼ -46.9¢ | 50¢ (50%) | N/A |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | ▼ -44.5¢ | 5.5¢ (5.5%) | N/A |
The market for Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? saw the largest decline, repricing down by 50¢ to just 9¢. This indicates a sharp decrease in the implied probability of Bitcoin hitting the target before the month's end. Conversely, odds for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? jumped 50¢, now pricing at 65¢. For more on how to interpret these shifts, see our guide on how to read Polymarket.
🐋 Whale watch
A significant SELL trade of $466,942.13 hit the Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? market, with price following the trade down by 57¢. This large, directional flow suggests a strong shift in sentiment regarding the likelihood of a conflict. Another notable trade was a $151,671.84 BUY in the Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? market, which absorbed the volume without significant price impact (a 76¢ negative impact). You can track such movements and understand their implications with our whale watching guide.
📊 Volume spikes
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | $500.00 | 79.7× |
| Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | $500.00 | 72.3× |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | $400.00 | 24.1× |
Today's trading saw significant volume spikes in markets tracking the world's largest companies by market cap, including Microsoft and Broadcom, both seeing $500 of volume trading at over 70x their average. The market for Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? also experienced elevated activity. These shifts highlight active interest in tech prediction markets.
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several markets are settling in the next 48 hours. Notable among them are competitive esports markets such as LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 and LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports, both with substantial total volume. Additionally, the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? market is set to resolve by the end of today.
PolyWatch pushes whale trades like these the moment they land — free on iOS and Android.
