TL;DR
- 🐋 A $135,294.80 whale sell pushed US-Iran invasion odds down 69¢.
- Elon Musk's tweet count 180-199 market surged 43¢ to 52.55¢.
- Bitcoin $81K market repriced up 37.5¢ to 50.5¢.
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk tweets 180-199 | ▲ +43¢ | 52.55¢ (52.55%) |
| Bitcoin $81,000 on Aug 27? | ▲ +37.5¢ | 50.5¢ (50.5%) |
| Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by Dec 31? | ▼ -32.5¢ | 60.5¢ (60.5%) |
| Elon Musk tweets 220-239 | ▼ -31.7¢ | 4.8¢ (4.8%) |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by Oct 31? | ▼ -30.5¢ | 20¢ (20%) |
The biggest mover today was the "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets..." market, gaining 43¢ to reach 52.55¢, suggesting increased probability for that range. Simultaneously, the 220-239 tweet range saw a significant drop of 31.7¢. This dynamic in Elon Musk tweet count tracker markets often reflects real-time social media activity.
🐋 Whale watch
A substantial $135,294.80 SELL order hit the Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? market, with prices dropping sharply by 69¢. This indicates a strong conviction against a near-term invasion, influencing the broader election betting odds. This type of informed flow can be a critical signal in prediction markets. Other whale activity included a $35,000.00 BUY on Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 27?, which saw the price move 99.8¢ against the buy, suggesting rapid absorption or countervailing forces. Similarly, a $29,458.08 BUY in the Avengers: Doomsday top grossing market was met with an 86¢ price drop.
📊 Volume spikes
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical Storm Saudel makes landfall in Japan? | $200.00 | 41.3× |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in August? | $1,000.00 | 41.5× |
| Bitcoin price above $76,000 on August 27? | $2,741.61 | 38.9× |
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several Counter-Strike markets are set to resolve today, including Legacy vs FUT Esports and MOUZ vs 9z in the BLAST Open Porto Group B. Also, the football market Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27? closes today. Tomorrow, the Elon Musk tweet count 140-159 range market resolves.
PolyWatch pushes real-time alerts on significant market moves the moment they land — free on iOS and Android.
