Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — live odds
27%
implied probability
recent price
-4¢ over the window
-4¢
24h change
$433K
24h volume
$45.9M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 8h ago
smart money move
- 9h ago
smart money move
- 10d ago
smart money move
- 16d ago
smart money move
- 30d ago
smart money move
- 31d ago
High volatility
±20.4¢ swing band
- 31d ago
Odds swing
59¢ → 16¢ (-43¢ in 15 min)
- 31d ago
High volatility
±52.1¢ swing band
- 31d ago
Odds swing
83¢ → 11¢ (-72¢ in 15 min)
- 31d ago
High volatility
±60.2¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 27¢ and NO at 74¢, an implied probability of 27% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$45.9M has been traded in total, $433K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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