
Another pandemic before GTA VI? — live odds
51%
implied probability
recent price
-45¢ over the window
-45¢
24h change
$35
24h volume
$29K
total volume
Jul 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 29d ago
High volatility
±59.7¢ swing band
- 29d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 16¢ (+15¢ in 15 min)
- 29d ago
High volatility
±36.3¢ swing band
- 29d ago
Odds swing
91¢ → 27¢ (-64¢ in 15 min)
- 29d ago
High volatility
±23.6¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and Grand Theft Auto VI's officially release in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for another pandemic's occurrence will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Another pandemic before GTA VI?"?
The market currently prices YES at 51¢ and NO at 50¢, an implied probability of 51% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$29K has been traded in total, $35 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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