Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 4? — live odds

Part of Bitcoin above ___ on August 4?· see all 11 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 4?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $74K has changed hands so far, $64K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-45¢ over the window

-45¢

24h change

$64K

24h volume

$74K

total volume

Aug 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
100¢ → 1¢ (-99¢ in 15 min)
10m ago
High volatility
±10.2¢ swing band
42m ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 1¢ (-9.5¢ in 15 min)
42m ago
High volatility
±11.2¢ swing band
58m ago
High volatility
±34.1¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
20¢ → 89¢ (+69¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±39.1¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±24.5¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±11.2¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
48¢ → 10¢ (-38.1¢ in 15 min)
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.