Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29? — final odds

Resolved YES · July 29, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?" resolved YES on July 29, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $186K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$158K

24h volume

$186K

total volume

Jul 29, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$3,368 traded — 49.7× the average
3h ago
Volume spike
$889 traded — 13.1× the average
3h ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 100¢ (+33.9¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
Volume spike
$785 traded — 11.6× the average
3h ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.09¢ vs 0.0269¢ normal
4h ago
High volatility
±26.7¢ swing band
4h ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 83¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)
4h ago
Volume spike
$563 traded — 8.9× the average
4h ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.08¢ vs 0.0251¢ normal
4h ago
High volatility
±10.8¢ swing band
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on July 29, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.