Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? — final odds

Resolved YES · July 21, 2026Final price 98¢ YES — the market gave this a 98% implied probability.

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98%

implied probability

YES 98¢NO 2¢

recent price

+63¢ over the window

+63¢

24h change

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24h volume

$26K

total volume

Jul 21, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±24.5¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
16¢ → 1¢ (-15.8¢ in 15 min)
9d ago
High volatility
±29¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
30¢ → 17¢ (-13¢ in 15 min)
9d ago
High volatility
±9.8¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 17¢ (+16.4¢ in 15 min)
9d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 14 12:00 PM ET to July 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Quick answers

How did "Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on July 21, 2026. Its final traded price was 98¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 98¢ — an implied probability of 98%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.