Human moon landing in 2026? — live odds
"Human moon landing in 2026?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $2.0M has changed hands so far, $6 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.
1%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$6
24h volume
$2.0M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 8d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 100¢ (+98.7¢ in 15 min)
- 8d ago
High volatility
±8.3¢ swing band
- 8d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 100¢ (+98.6¢ in 15 min)
- 39d ago
High volatility
±27.2¢ swing band
- 39d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 97¢ (+94.7¢ in 15 min)
- 39d ago
High volatility
±50.5¢ swing band
- 39d ago
High volatility
±27.2¢ swing band
- 40d ago
High volatility
±39¢ swing band
- 40d ago
High volatility
±8.6¢ swing band
- 40d ago
High volatility
±11.3¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Human moon landing in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$2.0M has been traded in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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